AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.NasdaqGM$119.53$16.51 (+16.03%)

$119.53

$16.51 (+16.03%)

7/21/2026, 6:03:02 PM · yahoo

Snapshot

Day high$120.20

Day low$107.40

Prev close$103.02

Volume7Mavg 11.71M

52w high$233.67

52w low$18.50

Market cap9.59B

CAGR 1y / 3y+313.1% · +134.3%

Trend

SMA 20$124.64

SMA 50$157.53

SMA 200$87.39

EMA 12$116.57

EMA 26$130.83

MACD-14.255

ADX (14)25.7

BB Width+50.65%

Momentum

RSI (14)45.1

Stoch %K50.0

Stoch %D29.0

Williams %R-50.0

ROC 10+4.48%

CCI 20-46.9

MFI 1426.3

Volatility

ATR 14$16.002

HV 20d+128.7%

HV 60d+145.1%

HV 252d+135.1%

Risk

VaR 95%-8.60%

VaR 99%-16.26%

CVaR 95%-13.77%

Max DD-98.49%

Sharpe0.24

Sortino0.34

Statistical

Mean ret/day+0.091%

Skew0.39

Kurtosis9.01

AC lag-1-0.038

AC lag-50.006

Hurst0.48

Fundamentals

Market cap9.58B

P/E (TTM)—

Fwd P/E25.0

P/B8.53

P/S18.90

PEG0.78

EV/EBITDA-295.28

ROE-6.1%

Debt/Equity25.4

Profit margin-8.5%

Revenue growth+51.4%

Beta3.69

Five-axis scorecard

Quality · Growth · Valuation · Momentum · Risk

Quality

100% cov

19/ 100

Stressed fundamentals

Drivers (5/5)

Profit margin-8.5%→ 0
0% → 0, 20%+ → 100. Negatives map to 0.
Operating margin-8.6%→ 0
0% → 0, 25%+ → 100.
Return on equity-6.1%→ 0
0% → 0, 25%+ → 100. Above-cost-of-capital territory.
Current ratio3.83→ 93
<1 stressed, 1.5–3 healthy, >3 idle cash.
Debt / equity25.36→ 0
0 → 100, 2.5+ → 0 (inverted, lower leverage is better).

Growth

50% cov

100/ 100

High growth

Drivers (1/2)

Revenue growth (YoY)51.4%→ 100
−10% → 0, +30%+ → 100.
Earnings growth (YoY)—
−20% → 0, +50%+ → 100.

Valuation

67% cov

31/ 100

Expensive on multiples

Drivers (4/6)

Trailing P/E—
≤10 cheap (100), ≥40 rich (0).
Forward P/E25.03→ 40
≤10 cheap (100), ≥35 rich (0).
PEG0.78→ 86
≤0.5 deeply cheap (100), ≥2.5 priced for perfection (0).
Price / book8.53→ 0
≤1 cheap (100), ≥6 rich (0).

Momentum

20% cov

—/ 100

Insufficient data

Drivers (1/4)

Monte Carlo P(up) 30d—
GBM simulation with calibrated drift/vol. Probability terminal price > today.
ML ensemble P(up) 5d—
Mean of RandomForest + LogisticRegression on 7 TA features.
Momentum composite0.08→ 54
RSI · MACD histogram · ROC10 · ADX, averaged then rescaled.
Social sentiment—
StockTwits author tags + StockTwits/X/Yahoo News VADER, averaged.

Risk

100% cov

13/ 100

Very high risk

Drivers (5/5)

Realized vol (60d)145.1%→ 0
0% → 100, 60%+ → 0 (annualized).
Max drawdown-77.2%→ 0
0% → 100, −60% → 0.
VaR 95% (1d)-12.5%→ 0
0% → 100, −6% → 0 (worse 1-day downside = lower).
Sharpe ratio0.96→ 65
−1 → 0, +2 → 100.

Each sub-score is a transparent weighted mean of normalized inputs (raw values shown below the headline). Mappings are deterministic piecewise functions — expand any card to inspect every driver.

Scoring…

Analyst ratings

Yahoo Finance · 5 analysts

Average rating

——

1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Strong Sell

Price target

$151.30+26.6%

Range $57.50 – $220.00

Distribution

Buy 3Hold 3Sell 0

Recent firm actions (93)Show

Date	Firm	Action	From	To
Jun 22	Rosenblatt	Maintained	Buy	Buy
May 8	Rosenblatt	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Mar 9	Rosenblatt	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Feb 27	Rosenblatt	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Feb 27	Needham	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Feb 27	B. Riley Securities	Upgrade	Sell	Neutral

Loading analyst ratings…

Growth Score

Coverage 20%

Insufficient DataLow confidence

Not enough signal coverage to classify.

Bias: 50/100
Agreement: 0%
Coverage: 20%
Signals: 1/4

Less than half of the model weight returned data.

How is this label derived?

Direction comes from bias (mean of the four normalized signal scores): ≥ 58 reads bullish, ≤ 42 reads bearish, otherwise mixed.

Conviction comes from agreement + coverage: strong = agreement ≥ 75% and coverage ≥ 75%; medium = agreement ≥ 50%; otherwise low.

Bullish + strong → Strong Candidate · Bullish + medium/low → Watchlist Candidate · Bearish + strong → Avoid for Conservative · Bearish + medium/low → High Risk · Mid bias → Mixed Signals.

—/ 100Insufficient data

Monte Carlo P(up) 30dweight 30%
—n/a
GBM simulation with calibrated drift/vol. Probability terminal price > today.
ML ensemble P(up) 5dweight 30%
—n/a
Mean of RandomForest + LogisticRegression on 7 TA features.
Momentum compositeweight 20%
0.08→ 54/100
RSI · MACD histogram · ROC10 · ADX, averaged then rescaled.
Social sentimentweight 20%
—n/a
StockTwits author tags + StockTwits/X/Yahoo News VADER, averaged.

The classification is a deterministic readout of the four directional signals below — not a prediction, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Each component is normalized to 0–100 and combined by the weights shown.

Computing Growth Score…

Simulating…

ARIMA forecast

30d mean—

90d mean—

180d mean—

360d mean—

360d 95%—

AIC—

GARCH volatility

1d σ—

30d σ (ann.)—

90d σ (ann.)—

180d σ (ann.)—

360d σ (ann.)—

AIC—

Monte Carlo

P(up) 30d—

P(up) 90d—

P(up) 180d—

P(up) 360d—

360d median—

360d 5–95—

ML probability (5d)

P(up) RF—

P(up) LR—

Ensemble—

Base rate—

Train n—

Loading forecast…

Loading filings…

Loading government trades…

Loading sentiment…

Not financial advice. All data from public sources and may be delayed or incomplete. Models shown are statistical descriptions of past behavior, not predictions. Provider: yahoo.