PVLA

Palvella Therapeutics, Inc.NasdaqGM$143.77$19.62 (+15.77%)

$143.77

$19.62 (+15.77%)

7/21/2026, 6:00:17 PM · yahoo

Base (median)Bull (95%)Bear (5%)

Snapshot

Day high$145.25

Day low$120.61

Prev close$124.15

Volume244.57Kavg 314.28K

52w high$161.38

52w low$31.01

Market cap2.06B

CAGR 1y / 3y+381.5% · +108.6%

Trend

SMA 20$143.66

SMA 50$125.57

SMA 200$106.59

EMA 12$143.44

EMA 26$137.88

MACD5.553

ADX (14)28.2

BB Width+27.18%

Momentum

RSI (14)53.0

Stoch %K61.8

Stoch %D48.9

Williams %R-38.2

ROC 10-1.32%

CCI 20-66.5

MFI 1449.4

Volatility

ATR 14$11.984

HV 20d+123.5%

HV 60d+93.0%

HV 252d+83.7%

Risk

VaR 95%-6.96%

VaR 99%-12.35%

CVaR 95%-11.67%

Max DD-99.14%

Sharpe0.01

Sortino0.01

Statistical

Mean ret/day+0.003%

Skew-2.55

Kurtosis101.58

AC lag-1-0.028

AC lag-50.001

Hurst0.48

Fundamentals

Market cap2.06B

P/E (TTM)—

Fwd P/E-22.5

P/B8.86

P/S—

PEG—

EV/EBITDA—

ROE-34.2%

Debt/Equity8.8

Profit margin+0.0%

Revenue growth—

Beta—

Five-axis scorecard

Quality · Growth · Valuation · Momentum · Risk

Quality

100% cov

12/ 100

Stressed fundamentals

Drivers (5/5)

Profit margin0.0%→ 0
0% → 0, 20%+ → 100. Negatives map to 0.
Operating margin0.0%→ 0
0% → 0, 25%+ → 100.
Return on equity-34.2%→ 0
0% → 0, 25%+ → 100. Above-cost-of-capital territory.
Current ratio28.88→ 60
<1 stressed, 1.5–3 healthy, >3 idle cash.
Debt / equity8.77→ 0
0 → 100, 2.5+ → 0 (inverted, lower leverage is better).

Growth

0% cov

—/ 100

Insufficient data

Drivers (0/2)

Revenue growth (YoY)—
−10% → 0, +30%+ → 100.
Earnings growth (YoY)—
−20% → 0, +50%+ → 100.

Valuation

17% cov

—/ 100

Insufficient data

Drivers (1/6)

Trailing P/E—
≤10 cheap (100), ≥40 rich (0).
Forward P/E-22.52
≤10 cheap (100), ≥35 rich (0).
PEG—
≤0.5 deeply cheap (100), ≥2.5 priced for perfection (0).
Price / book8.86→ 0
≤1 cheap (100), ≥6 rich (0).
Price / sales

Momentum

70% cov

59/ 100

Bull (59/100)

Drivers (3/4)

Monte Carlo P(up) 30d66.6%→ 67
GBM simulation with calibrated drift/vol. Probability terminal price > today.
ML ensemble P(up) 5d—
Mean of RandomForest + LogisticRegression on 7 TA features.
Momentum composite-0.31→ 35
RSI · MACD histogram · ROC10 · ADX, averaged then rescaled.
Social sentiment0.43→ 72

Risk

80% cov

32/ 100

High risk

Drivers (4/5)

Realized vol (60d)93.0%→ 0
0% → 100, 60%+ → 0 (annualized).
Max drawdown-36.2%→ 40
0% → 100, −60% → 0.
VaR 95% (1d)-6.7%→ 0
0% → 100, −6% → 0 (worse 1-day downside = lower).
Sharpe ratio1.66→ 89
−1 → 0, +2 → 100.

Each sub-score is a transparent weighted mean of normalized inputs (raw values shown below the headline). Mappings are deterministic piecewise functions — expand any card to inspect every driver.

Scoring…

Analyst ratings

Yahoo Finance · 15 analysts

Average rating

——

1 = Strong Buy · 5 = Strong Sell

Price target

$229.60+59.7%

Range $205.00 – $270.00

Distribution

Buy 15Hold 0Sell 0

Recent firm actions (58)Show

Date	Firm	Action	From	To
May 21	Stephens & Co.	Reiterated	Overweight	Overweight
May 21	Chardan Capital	Maintained	Buy	Buy
May 12	Stephens & Co.	Initiated	—	Overweight
Mar 31	Chardan Capital	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Mar 24	HC Wainwright & Co.	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Mar 16	Chardan Capital	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Feb 25	Mizuho	Maintained	Outperform	Outperform
Feb 25	BTIG	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Feb 24	Chardan Capital	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Feb 24	HC Wainwright & Co.	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Jan 29	BTIG	Reiterated	Buy	Buy
Jan 16	BTIG	Reiterated	Buy	Buy
Jan 7	Mizuho	Initiated	—	Outperform
Dec 16	Truist Securities	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Dec 16	Canaccord Genuity	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Dec 16	TD Cowen	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Dec 16	Chardan Capital	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Dec 15	HC Wainwright & Co.	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Dec 15	BTIG	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Dec 5	Clear Street	Initiated	—	Buy
Dec 5	BTIG	Initiated	—	Buy
Dec 4	Craig-Hallum	Initiated	—	Buy
Nov 24	Stifel	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Nov 19	Raymond James	Upgrade	Outperform	Strong Buy
Nov 13	Canaccord Genuity	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Nov 13	Chardan Capital	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Nov 10	Truist Securities	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Nov 7	Chardan Capital	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Nov 6	TD Cowen	Maintained	Buy	Buy
Nov 6	Cantor Fitzgerald	Maintained	Overweight	Overweight

Loading analyst ratings…

Growth Score

Coverage 70%

Mixed SignalsLow confidence

Mixed Signals — composite 59/100, no clear directional consensus.

Bias: 58/100
Agreement: 67%
Coverage: 70%
Signals: 3/4

Monte Carlo gives 66.6% probability of finishing above today over 30 days (bullish).
Momentum composite at -0.31 on a -1..+1 scale (bearish).
Social sentiment composite at 0.43 on a -1..+1 scale (bullish).

Coverage 70% — at least one signal is missing.

How is this label derived?

Direction comes from bias (mean of the four normalized signal scores): ≥ 58 reads bullish, ≤ 42 reads bearish, otherwise mixed.

Conviction comes from agreement + coverage: strong = agreement ≥ 75% and coverage ≥ 75%; medium = agreement ≥ 50%; otherwise low.

Bullish + strong → Strong Candidate · Bullish + medium/low → Watchlist Candidate · Bearish + strong → Avoid for Conservative · Bearish + medium/low → High Risk · Mid bias → Mixed Signals.

59/ 100Bull

Monte Carlo P(up) 30dweight 30%
+66.6%→ 67/100
GBM simulation with calibrated drift/vol. Probability terminal price > today.
ML ensemble P(up) 5dweight 30%
—n/a
Mean of RandomForest + LogisticRegression on 7 TA features.
Momentum compositeweight 20%
-0.31→ 35/100
RSI · MACD histogram · ROC10 · ADX, averaged then rescaled.
Social sentimentweight 20%
0.43→ 72/100
StockTwits author tags + StockTwits/X/Yahoo News VADER, averaged.

The classification is a deterministic readout of the four directional signals below — not a prediction, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to trade. Each component is normalized to 0–100 and combined by the weights shown.

Computing Growth Score…

Bull / Base / Bear scenarios

Monte Carlo · 10,000 paths

30-day horizon

P(up) +41.2%

Bear (5th pct)

$76.74

-0.5%

Base (median)

$133.55

-0.1%

Bull (95th pct)

$233.25

+0.6%

Expected: $141.57 (-0.0%)From $143.77 today

90-day horizon

P(up) +34.8%

Bear (5th pct)

$44.08

-0.7%

Base (median)

$114.07

-0.2%

Bull (95th pct)

$297.79

+1.1%

Expected: $135.33 (-0.1%)From $143.77 today

180-day horizon

P(up) +29.7%

Bear (5th pct)

$23.88

-0.8%

Base (median)

$91.65

-0.4%

Bull (95th pct)

$353.42

+1.5%

Expected: $129.50 (-0.1%)From $143.77 today

360-day horizon

P(up) +23.0%

Bear (5th pct)

$8.80

-0.9%

Base (median)

$59.17

-0.6%

Bull (95th pct)

$413.40

+1.9%

Expected: $121.42 (-0.2%)From $143.77 today

Scenarios are 5/50/95 percentiles of 10,000 GBM simulations calibrated to recent drift and volatility — not forecasts. Drift μ = -0.05%/day · vol σ = 6.24%/day.

Simulating…

ARIMA forecast

30d mean$145.10

90d mean$145.10

180d mean$145.10

360d mean$145.10

360d 95%$13.54 – $1,555.01

AIC-3,397.9

GARCH volatility

Loading forecast…

Recent filings (SEC EDGAR)

8-KMaterial eventOpen ↗Filed 2026-07-14 · period ending 2026-07-14
8-KMaterial eventOpen ↗Filed 2026-06-30 · period ending 2026-06-29
8-KMaterial eventOpen ↗Filed 2026-06-16 · period ending 2026-06-10
8-KMaterial eventOpen ↗Filed 2026-05-20 · period ending 2026-05-20
8-KMaterial eventOpen ↗Filed 2026-05-15 · period ending 2026-05-15
8-KMaterial eventOpen ↗Filed 2026-05-13 · period ending 2026-05-11
8-KMaterial eventOpen ↗Filed 2026-05-07 · period ending 2026-05-07
10-QQuarterly reportOpen ↗Filed 2026-05-07 · period ending 2026-03-31

Loading filings…

Combined sentiment

0.43-1 bear · +1 bull

Mean of available components: StockTwits author tags + VADER, X VADER, and headline VADER for Yahoo News, GDELT, Alpha Vantage, and Finnhub. Updates every 5 minutes.

StockTwits

Messages25

Bullish tags8

Bearish tags0

Author score1.00

VADER0.09

Yahoo News

Messages10

VADER0.63

Finnhub

Messages1

VADER0.00

In the news (25)

StockTwitsnotreload_ai7/21/2026, 12:58:38 PM
$PVLA stock fell 21% Monday after FDA denied Breakthrough Therapy status for QTORIN. Analysts at BTIG view it as a short-term setback and maintain Buy rating with $215 price target. https://notreload.xyz/xy/pvla-drops-21-after-fda-snub-btig-says-buy/
FinnhubBenzinga7/21/2026, 10:37:37 AM
Hasbro, Utz Brands, Park Aerospace And Other Big Stocks Moving Higher On Tuesday
StockTwitsF15EAGLE17/20/2026, 10:35:42 PM
$PVLA $PVLA Here is what triggered the selling today - FDA did not issue BTD for cVM - see the last bullet point They have BTD for mLM, which is under rolling NDA submission/ rolling review Plan to resubbmit the request for BTD for cVM with additional ph2 data
StockTwitsJFais7/20/2026, 9:50:13 PM
$PVLA added to DD list on today's gap down (will take me a while to get to it, several other names in queue first) Market didn't like that they failed to get Breakthrough Designation for cVM (have it for lead indication mLM) Bear points from Chat (ongoing discussion) well taken, including concerns on market penetration + overlap with systemic treatments like $RLAY's zovegalisib among others
StockTwitsKippy1827/20/2026, 8:59:55 PM
$PVLA not many shares
StockTwitsWonderfulMongoose7/20/2026, 8:23:05 PM
$PVLA uuuuhhhhhhhhh???
StockTwitsGA09Bullish7/20/2026, 6:47:47 PM
$PVLA There was an insider selling.
StockTwitsCH_ExpatBullish7/20/2026, 6:37:52 PM
$PVLA Probably a fund onloading. Not a surprise after such a run. Interested here, but of course not at this levels.
StockTwitsdolfin20thBullish7/20/2026, 5:58:37 PM
$PVLA so back to 119? 🤔
StockTwitsdjgestatesBullish7/20/2026, 5:04:48 PM
$PVLA
Yahoo NewsInsider Monkey7/15/2026, 2:01:51 PM
Palvella Therapeutics (PVLA) Submits Initial Module of NDA For QTORIN Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:PVLA) is one of the 10 affordable biotech stocks to buy right now. On June 29, Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:PVLA) disclosed that it filed the initial module of its New Drug Application with the FDA for approval of QTORIN 3.9% rapamycin anhydrous gel. QTORIN is used to treat microcystic lymphatic malformations. The […]
StockTwitsMandelbrotMarkets7/11/2026, 9:16:51 PM
$PVLA is a biotech name where the market may still be underestimating the long-term opportunity. With a current market cap around $2.1B, the upside case depends on whether the company can execute toward peak sales expectations and earn a stronger valuation multiple. The next few quarters will be about proving the commercial path.
StockTwitsJcljack26Bullish7/9/2026, 10:49:13 PM
$PVLA Just go to $250 already
StockTwitsBillionerOfKing7/9/2026, 10:18:29 PM
$PVLA Current Stock Price: $151.17 Contracts to trade: $150.0 PVLA Jul 17 2026 Call Entry: $5.00 Exit: $9.11 ROI: 82% Hold ~21 days Shared as daily free alerts and for educational purposes only. https://dailypickai.com/freealerts
StockTwitsskyrockets_Inc7/3/2026, 9:01:06 PM
@joe77w if we had held our PIRS (now $PVLA ) we would have x15 our money. They were also later stage pipeline RM
StockTwitsClassiTrader7/1/2026, 7:15:25 AM
$PVLA over $400K blcok for calls
StockTwitsKatsuDonny6/30/2026, 8:52:08 AM
$PVLA what is possible? 250 ?
StockTwitsDRameka6/30/2026, 5:42:56 AM
@WAJeff $PVLA
StockTwitsLewisDaKat6/27/2026, 5:30:36 PM
$PVLA What to Know About This $476,000 Palvella Therapeutics Insider Sale After a 620% Stock Rally https://marketwirenews.com/stock/pvla/news/what-to-know-about-this-476-000-palvella-therapeutic-7988041192119545.html?utm_source=stocktwits
Yahoo NewsMotley Fool6/27/2026, 4:31:54 PM
What to Know About This $476,000 Palvella Therapeutics Insider Sale After a 620% Stock Rally Focused on rare skin disease therapies, this clinical-stage biotech just reported a notable insider sale amid a year of sharp stock gains.
StockTwitsDWldnBullish6/26/2026, 12:16:13 PM
$PVLA ATHs got edged. May not get it this week.
StockTwitsJcljack26Bullish6/25/2026, 1:10:10 PM
$PVLA This stock could easily be a $250-300 stock.
StockTwitsQuantumup6/25/2026, 11:29:55 AM
Canaccord Genuity reit'd $PVLA Buy; $227 $TARA $NVS PFE Canaccord Genuity said: Following QTORIN rapamycin's positive Ph3 data in microcystic lymphatic malformations (mLM) earlier this year (note here) the main investor FAQs we receive are on the market opportunity with a specific appetite for better understanding of disease severity, urgency to treat, and current treatment landscape with a focus on topical compounded rapamycin. To that end, we surveyed 22 physicians (both dermatologists and hematology oncologists) across the US from May 13-29 who treat a total of 744 mLM patients. Below we run through recent investor FAQs and survey results to help address them; detailed survey results start on p.3. Bottom line: docs like QTORIN rapamycin's profile and expect a significant amount of patients will switch, ultimately expecting 46% of their patients will be on QTORIN rapamycin 3yrs post launch. As a reminder, PVLA is on track to submit its NDA in 2H26, we model launch in 1H27. Reiterate BUY.
Yahoo NewsInvestorsHub6/22/2026, 12:49:05 PM
Palvella Shares Advance After FDA Grants Rolling Review for Rare Disease Therapy Palvella Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:PVLA) shares gained 5% in premarket trading on Monday after the company announced that the U. S.
StockTwitsDWldnBullish6/22/2026, 12:28:06 PM
$PVLA ATHs? 👀 HTF charts are coiled for higher, and below just happened: Palvella received FDA rolling review status for its QTORIN rapamycin NDA in treating microcystic lymphatic malformations, allowing regulators to review sections of the application before the full filing is completed. The therapy could become the first FDA-approved treatment for the rare disease and remains on track for full NDA submission in the second half of 2026.

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Not financial advice. All data from public sources and may be delayed or incomplete. Models shown are statistical descriptions of past behavior, not predictions. Provider: yahoo.